3.5 Exponential and Logarithmic Models
5 most common:
1). Exponential growth model: y = ae(bx), b>0.
2). Exponential decay model: y = ae(-bx), b>0.
3). Gaussian model: y = ae(-((x-b)2)/c)
4). Logistic growth model: y = a/(1+be(-rx))
5). Logarithmic models:
a. y = a + b ln x; b. y = a + b log x
Graphs:
Examples:
Exponential Growth: Given P = 240360e(0.012t)
t = 0 represents 2000, when will the population reach 275,000?
275000 = 240360 e(0.012t)
1.144117158 = e(0.012t)
ln 1.144117158 = 0.012 t
11.21944152 = t
Therefore, 2000 + 11 = 2011.
Example 2:
Country: Croatia, in 1997 had 5.0 million people and is estimated to have 4.8 in 2020, how many will there be in 2030?
Two points: (0, 5) and (23, 4.8)
Find the exponential growth model using y = ae(bt)
5 = ae(b*0)
5 = ae(0)
5 = a
4.8 = ae(b * 23)
4.8 = 5e(23b)
.96 = e^(23b)
ln .96 = 23b
-.0017748693 = b
Croatia’s equation is y = 5e(-.0017748693t)
So in 2030, the population is 4.7 million
The “b” is the growth rate.
Since “b” is negative in Croatia, the population is decreasing.
Gaussian Models y = ae-((x-b)2)/c
The model is commonly used in probability and statistics to represent populations that are NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED. For STANDARD normal distributions, the model takes the form:
y = (1/(standard deviation times the square root of 2 pi) )times (e((-x^2)/(2 standard deviation squared)))
The graph of a Gaussian model is called a bell-shaped curve.
Example:
The SAT scores in 1997 followed:
y = 0.0036e((-(2-511)^2)/(25088)) where 200 is less than or equal to x which is less than or equal to 800.
The maximum point is (511.11112, 0.0036)
A logistic growth curve: is a rapid growth followed by a declining rate of growth OR a sigmoidal curve.
y = a / ( 1 + be(-rx))
Example: Spread of a virus (flu)
y = 5000/(1 + 4999e(-.8r))
a. How many students are infected after 5 days?
54 people
b. If classes are cancelled when 40% or more are infected of a campus of 5000 students, how long will it take? 10.14 days.
Magnitudes of Earthquakes
R = log (I/ Io)
Magnitude R of an earthquake of Intensity of I where I0 usually equals 1.
Example: Find the magnitude of R of an earthquake of Intensity I, let I0 = 1.
a). Taiwan in 1999, I = 39811000
R = log 39811000 = 7.600003087 = 7.6
Example 2: What is the Intensity if R = 8.6?
8.6 = log I
10(8.6) = I
I = 398107170.6
Homework: #30 pg. 266; #1-29 odd, 39